How much will our heating cost us?

One of the many ways Council officers and Councillors will try and convince residents that the installation of heat meters is to their benefit is by claiming that it will help reduce their heating and hot water costs. 

It would be wonderful if this were true. Sadly it is not. 

Back in 2019 the Council asked one of its consultants, a firm named Calford Seaden, to find out how much the residents of the Cremorne Estate would have to pay for their heating and hot water if heat meters were installed in their homes and used to bill them. 

The consultants went ahead and did just that. They worked out how much the residents of the estate would have to pay, on average, if the Council installed heat meters in their homes, used heat meters to measure how much heating and hot water they used, and then billed them for it.

They produced a report for the Council. A neighbour was kind enough to let us see, read and digest the contents of this report and, as it's pretty dry stuff, we've tried to summarise it below. 

What did they do? 

The first thing the consultants from Calford Seaden did was to work out how much energy, in the form of heating and hot water, the flats on the estate actually used. 

No one has ever measured this, so Calford Seaden had to work it out from scratch.

They sat down and estimated how much energy each flat was likely to need. They took into account the age and design of the buildings, whether they had any form of insulation, the size of individual flats and the people likely to be living in them (i.e. whether they were families with children, the elderly, the disabled, the vulnerable, and so on). 

They eventually arrived at these figures: a one-bed flat would consume around 8,000 kWh of energy per year, a two-bed flat would consume about 10,500 kWh per year and a three-bed flat would consume around 14,000 kWh per year. 

If the Cremorne Estate was a brand new housing estate these figures would seem a bit high. But the Cremorne Estate is not new. Most of the estate was built in the 1950s and there is currently little or no insulation on many of the buildings. Without constant heating many flats are extremely cold. The figures are a reasonable estimate. 

Calford Seaden then went out and had a look at how communal and district heating and hot water systems across London operated. They focused on those that used heat meters inside people's homes to measure their energy consumption and bill them for it. They made a note of what they found and used it to work out how much the residents of the Cremorne Estate were likely to pay for their heating and hot water if heat meters were installed. 

At this point we're going to cut to the chase. Calford Seaden's detailed findings and calculations are really interesting if you're into that stuff but most people aren't, so we're just going to tell you what they found instead. 

What did they find?

Firstly, let us emphasise that these calculations were originally made in 2019. 

That's before the pandemic and, more importantly, before the energy crisis that came about as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

It's five years later, the peak of the energy crisis has passed but energy costs remain stubbornly high, roughly double what they were before the pandemic, and they show little sign of going down any time soon. Ofgem has allowed the energy cap to increase twice so far this year. The direction of travel is upwards not downwards. Bear that in mind when you read what follows.

In 2019 Calford Seaden calculated that a resident living in a one-bed flat would have to pay 2.1 times (210%) what they did then, a resident living in a two-bed flat would have to pay 2.4 times (240%) what they did then, and the resident of a three-bed flat would have to pay 2.9 times (290%) what they did then. 

Let's turn those multiples into figures: 

The resident of a one bed flat would have to pay around £1,100 a year with a heat meter. 

The resident of a two bed flat would have to pay around £1,270 a year with a heat meter.

The resident of a three bed flat would have to pay around £1,500 a year with a heat meter. 

These figures would include a standing charge of about £650 a year that everyone would have to pay even if they used no heating or hot water at all. 

In 2019. 

No one on the estate was paying that kind of money for their heating and hot water in 2019. Everyone was paying, at most, half of what that one-bed flat would be paying (don't believe us? check your records). So, even before the energy crisis, everyone would be paying more than double for their heating and hot water if heat meters were installed on the estate. 

And, to no one's surprise, the Council kept that pretty quiet.  

But it gets worse. 

Energy costs have roughly doubled since 2019. So you can take the figures given above, double them and you have what you are likely to have to pay today: 

The resident of a one bed flat would have to pay around £2,200 a year. 

The resident of a two bed flat would have to pay around £2,540 a year.

The resident of a three bed flat would have to pay around £3,000 a year. 

And these figures would include that hefty standing charge, originally estimated at £650 a year, that is also likely to have doubled, which everyone would have to pay even if they use no heating or hot water at all. 

Where does that leave us? 

Well for a start we can treat the claim that heat meters will save you money as what it is: a con. 

No one living on the estate will save any money if heat meters are installed. The opposite will be the case: residents will pay a lot more than they are paying today. 

Sadly, it gets even worse. 

A large proportion of the Cremorne's Estate's population is elderly, or vulnerable, or has young children. These residents spend a significant amount of their time at home. 

Many elderly residents suffer from complex medical conditions. The health of these residents will deteriorate if they can't keep their homes warm. Their health will suffer and they risk losing their independence. 

Many residents have limited incomes. Many elderly residents only have a state pension and already depend on pension credits. Some families already depend on local food banks. 

They are the ones that will end up paying much more for their heating and hot water than they do today. They'll have to pay the hefty standing charge, and then they'll have to pay for the heating and hot water they use. And before you know it they're facing the extremely steep increases in heating and hot water costs Calford Seaden predicted - up to 300%.

Remember, heating and hot water costs are not covered by Housing Benefit or Universal Credit. But the Council will still expect residents to find the money to pay for their heating and hot water from somewhere.

What will happen if they simply don't have the money to pay for the heating and hot water they need? They'll either run up a large debt to the Council or have to turn off their heating and refrain from using any hot water and suffer the consequences to their health and wellbeing. 

We've done the sums. A resident in this situation will have to reduce their heating and hot water usage by more than 75% to try and ensure that they pay no more than they do today. They'll go from being able to heat their home properly to only being able to afford to have the heating on for five or six hours a day at most. For those who spend much of their time at home, they'll be spending that time in a rather cold flat. 

Does this sound even remotely reasonable to you?  

How can Council officers and Councillors be so cruel as to inflict this on our most vulnerable residents? What have these residents done to deserve this ? 

But this IS what the Council is proposing. They know who lives on the estate. They know what will happen to them and the harm it will inevitably cause. Do any of them care? 

Our Councillors are: 

• Gerard Hargreaves (cllr.gerard.hargreaves@rbkc.gov.uk), 
• Laura Burns (cllr.laura.burns@rbkc.gov.uk) and 
• Sonia Zvedeniuk (cllr.sonia.zvedeniuk@rbkc.gov.uk). 

We should all let them know how we feel by emailing them.